ProperNews
(Image Source: UNSPLASH/Nicolas Hippert)
Macro Backdrop: Reasonable Growth, High Valuations
US/Europe growth solid (1.0% EZ GDP), but labor softening + AI euphoria = caution. Gold hedges amplify, geopolitics volatile.
1. AI Infrastructure: $400-500B Annual Spend
AI capex ~2% US GDP by 2026—cloud + telecom scale. Data center construction, high-density compute, power/cooling bottlenecks create winners:
• Electrical engineering: Transformers + grid upgrades
• Power demand: Nuclear/SMR critical
• Cooling: Liquid immersion leaders
2. Nuclear Revival: Trump Targets 2028 Military SMR
Nuclear renaissance accelerates: AI power demands + climate goals. Small Modular Reactors factory-built, deploy 2x faster traditional:
• Oklo/BWX Technologies commercialization race
• Trump policy: Military bases 2028 targets
• UAE/Saudi AI-nuclear hubs
3. Defense Tech $1T Opportunity
Beyond weapons: cybersecurity, space, AI warfare, infrastructure protection. Private credit surge signals system stress (write-downs rising).
4. EM Resilience: LatAm, Gulf, Mexico
• Mexico: USMCA nearshoring
• Saudi/UAE: AI sovereign funds
• Brazil: Earnings growth post-reset
5. Fixed Income Carry Year
Post-peak rates, EM bonds 2026 carry kings (LC/HC/corporate HY). Sub-Saharan Africa/LatAm value.
6. Equities: Japan Governance, Germany Stimulus
• Japan: Corporate reform extreme small-cap discount
• Germany: Fiscal boost
• EM: Fed easing + growth
Key Data Points
| Theme | Projection | Winners |
| AI Infra | $400-500B/year | Electrical, cooling |
| Nuclear | 2028 military | Oklo, BWX |
| Defense | $1T multi-year | Cyber, space |
| EM Bonds | Carry kings | LatAm HC |
Risks
• US labor: Slowing markets high valuations
• Geopolitics: Volatility spikes
• Private credit: Write-down test
Portfolio Allocation
• Equities: Japan SMID, EM LatAm/Europe/UAE
• Fixed Income: US 5Y/EU 10Y, Italian BTPs
• Multi-Asset: Gold hedges, oil downgrade
Bottom Line
2026 = transition markets: AI discipline, nuclear scale, defense multi-year. Balanced risk-on with EM/gold safeguards.
